The latest Ethnic Group Population Projection from the GLA has predicted:
- The White population of Greater London is projected to stabilise at about 4.9 million throughout the next decade and increase very slightly thereafter, reaching 5.0 million in 2041.
- The BAME (Black and Minority Ethnic, GLA definition) population of Greater London is projected to increase from 3.3 million in 2011 to 5.1 million in 2041.
- The proportion of the Greater London population that is BAME is projected to reach 50 per cent by 2037. By 2037, 15 London boroughs are projected to have BAME majority populations, four in Inner London (Lewisham, Newham, Southwark and Tower Hamlets) and 11 in Outer London (Barking and Dagenham, Brent, Croydon, Ealing, Enfield, Greenwich, Harrow, Hillingdon, Hounslow, Redbridge and Waltham Forest).
- Over the projection period the greatest relative growth is projected to occur in the Black Other, Other Asian, and Other ethnic groups.
- By the Census year 2011 the Black African population (576 thousand) had surpassed the Indian population (545 thousand) to become the biggest individual BAME ethnic group in Greater London. The ethnic projections indicate that by 2023 the Other Asian population will reach 751 thousand to become the biggest individual BAME ethnic group.